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Morning Insights FM Radio | January 23, 2025

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The current stock market landscape is undeniably being influenced by the surge of technology stocks in the United States, with the S&P 500 index recently achieving new heightsThis growth can largely be attributed to the significant investments in artificial intelligence (AI) in the U.S., leading to a rally in the AI value chainNotably, shares of Arm jumped nearly 16%, while SoftBank’s American stock soared by 11%. Nvidia's stock experienced a substantial rise of over 4%, with TSMC's shares also climbing more than 2%, hitting record levelsSimilarly, Netflix, which reported strong financial results, saw its shares increase by almost 10%, bringing it to an all-time highProcter & Gamble also rose by nearly 2%, and Ansys, often referred to as a ‘supplier for Nvidia’, saw an impressive 7% increase in its share priceMeanwhile, European markets have also shown a favorable trend, with German stocks marking six days of historical highs and Adidas stock gaining 6% following its quarterly report.

Amidst these gains, the U.S. bond yields saw a reboundThe dollar index experienced a significant V-shaped reversal, originally hitting a yearly low before turning upwardThe offshore yuan weakened, dropping over 200 points and pressuring the 7.2 markIn the commodities market, gold reached a new three-month high, nearing its historic intraday record, while oil prices dipped to near two-week lows, with Brent crude suffering five consecutive declines.

In the Asian markets, reaction to global cues led to a broad retreat in both the A-shares and Hong Kong stocksHardware stocks related to computing power remained resilient, with indexes related to container shipping in Europe rising over 12%. Three cross-border ETFs faced trading suspension again due to premium ratesIn notable market news, Elon Musk shook things up with a significant move regarding Dogecoin, while a CEO of a major sovereign fund urged investors to consider diversifying their portfolios by selling U.S. tech stocks and increasing their stakes in China

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Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, voiced concerns that U.S. equities might be a bit overstated and revealed a renewed rapport with Musk, referring to him as “our Einstein.”

In terms of stock performance, the U.S. markets closed positively, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.3%, the S&P 500 rising by 0.61%, and the Nasdaq enjoying a sizable gain of 1.28%. Across the Atlantic, Europe saw the STOXX 600 index rise by 0.39%, the DAX 30 index in Germany gaining 1.01%, and the CAC 40 in France rising by 0.86%. In contrast, the UK’s FTSE 100 saw a minor decline of 0.04%. The A-shares, however, suffered losses, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.89%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.77%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 0.54%. In the bond market, yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year treasury rose by over three basis points to approximately 4.61%, while the two-year yield also climbed close to three basis points.

Shifting to commodities, WTI crude for March delivery closed down 0.51% at $75.44 per barrel, and Brent crude for the same month fell 0.36%, settling at $79.00 per barrelIn the precious metals space, February gold futures rose by 0.42%, ending at $2,770.9 per ounce, but nickel fell over 2%, leading basic metals, whereas tin managed to rise by 0.1%.

On the global front, significant opinions emerged regarding the current landscapeNicolai Tangen, the CEO of the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, advised that now is the time to offload American technology stocks in favor of increasing investments in ChinaHe raised a point of interest about Nvidia, expressing uncertainty over whether it is still a worthwhile purchase, yet affirmed their product is commendableMeanwhile, Jamie Dimon reiterated his stance that the U.S. stock market appears "a bit overvalued", positioning asset prices within the historical valuation range's top 10% or 15%. He noted similar trends in certain sectors of the bond market as well.

Moreover, a leading co-CIO of Bridgewater predicted further appreciation of the dollar, viewing Chinese bonds as a favorable diversification tool

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During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Karen Karniol-Tambour articulated that while the dollar could strengthen further, Japanese yen was another currency to watchHolding Chinese bonds was highlighted as a resilient hedge against risk, despite the potential for lower returns compared to what 2024 may yield.

The AI wave continues to benefit suppliers such as Amphenol, which announced record profit margins for Q4 and an optimistic sales outlook for Q1 that surpassed expectationsThe firm experienced a 30% year-on-year increase in net sales for its fourth quarter, equating to record operating profit margins.

On the forefront of AI advancements, Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, spoke about an impending reality where AI could exceed human capabilities within the next two to three yearsHe emphasized the potential for AI to complement human roles, aiming for productivity rather than outright replacementThe company is anticipated to launch a ‘virtual collaborator’ this year, marking a crucial step in the evolution of AI technology.

Within the macroeconomic sphere, the upcoming timeline around tariffs piqued interest, as analysts from Deutsche Bank suggested that markets might be underestimating risks associated with impending government actions concerning tariffs, specifically highlighting April 1 as a crucial dateChristine Lagarde further weighed in, informing that the European Central Bank must prepare adequately for the possible emergence of U.S. tariffs, which may be more selective and targeted than previously experienced.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, sounded alarms about the U.K. potentially facing a ‘debt death spiral’, similar to emerging signs in the U.S., as interest payments on U.K. bonds surged over £100 billion annuallyHe indicated that this could prompt the need for increasingly substantial borrowing simply to service these burgeoning interest costs.

The European equity markets have recently flourished in light of a dynamic rotation of funds from U.S. to European stocks, recorded as the second-largest increase in investment in the past quarter-century

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